Tag Archives: Econometrics

The ordinary business of macroeconometric modeling: working on the MIT-Fed-Penn model (1964-1974)

Against monetarism?  In the early days of 1964, George Leland Bach, former dean of the Carnegie Business School and consultant to the Federal Reserve, arranged a meeting between the Board of Governors and 7 economists, including Stanford’s Ed Shaw, Yale’s … Continue reading

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The problem with “economists-failed-to-predict-the-2008-crisis” macrodeath articles

This week has delivered one more interesting batch of economics soul-searching posts. On Monday,  the Bloomberg View editorial board has outlined its plans to make economics more of a science (by “tossing out” models that are “refuted by the observable world” … Continue reading

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Collapsing Europe, rising dictators, and the rhetoric of inevitability: last time, it prompted a probabilistic revolution in economics

May 2016: France is torn apart by floods, strikes, oil and power shortages, labour reform protests degenerating into violent clashes between protesters and the police. Birtish debates over Brexit is getting dirtier and more confused every day, and it’s a … Continue reading

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Theory vs data, computerization, old wine and new bottles: Morgenstern and Econometric Society fellows, 1953

The proposal In January 1953, Oskar Morgentern wrote Alfred Cowles to suggest a change in the Constitution of the Econometric Society (ES). The Fellow section stated that: Instead, Morgenstern proposed that candidates be required to “have done some econometric work in the … Continue reading

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